Barack Hussein Obama Can’t Touch Ron Paul
In politics, it’s really easy to get carried away in the midst of a campaign. In many ways, it’s more intoxicating than sports. The Sport of Kings is what Huey Long called it.
So I try to be always on guard for fantastical notions of how well my preferred candidate is doing, lest I cloud my model of reality and make poor judgment. Knowing my own vanity, I play an advocate against good news, making my best case. If I can’t make the case, I allow myself to agree with my predispositions and accept the good news as true.
I’m getting to the point where the case against Ron Paul, i.e. the case that he can’t win, is getting increasingly hard to make. I’m starting to not only hope, but to believe. So let me raise my hands and testify, brothers and sisters.
At this point in the campaign we get signals that are representative of real support. Sometimes these are good signals, sometimes they are bad. But Ron Paul’s record-setting $4.2 million dollar day is awfully hard to ignore.
What we’re learning now is how much support the other candidates have as they try and copycat Paul’s strategy. So this week, Barack Hussein Obama’s (that’s his real middle name, I’m not kidding) supporters decided to do a money bomb of their own today:
my.barackobama.com/page/group/BaracksFridayNovthe16th
Go check it out. As of 11 pm Central, they’ve raised $4600 from 69 people. Paul raised $4.2 million from 30,000 donors. What the heck is going on out there?
Many will argue that Paul’s supporters are inherently more computer-oriented Internet types. This might be true if we were comparing Paul to Hillary Clinton (who attracts a lower-class demographic). But Obama is the toast of silly upper middle class liberals from New England to California (try this Google search): a silly, but also wealthy and internet-savvy population.
Make all the adjustments and tweaks you want to normalize the stats, but these numbers scream.
Fred Thompson’s supporters are trying the same thing:
They have 60 people signed up. Meanwhile, Tea Party ‘07 has over 15,000 people signed up to moneybomb the Paul campaign all over again on December 16th, the anniversary of the Boston Tea Party.
Statistically, donors are a subset of voters, and unless we are prepared to believe that Ron Paul’s support is entirely anomalous (i.e. not subject to the 80/20 principle universal in human behavior that the donors represent many more supporters and voters), we must admit that it is real, and it is big. It’s getting harder to believe he can’t win than he can. Even his poll numbers are starting to pick up, at 5% nationwide and 7-8% in the early primaries.
John Kerry was at 4% at this time in 2003.
It could happen, it really could.
November 17th, 2007 at 2:28 am
The “F”-bomb site owner (here) explains the dismally low number of pledges:
Terribly inconvenient thing, that. The beta testing required comlpete resetting of all their records. Poor little fredheads. But it’s an obvious Fred grassroots thing… the owners disavow any official relation to the Fred campaign:
On the other hand, the Obamadud was a wholly-owned subsidiary of the B. Hussein O. campaign. Average donation for the 69 participants was $67.
So the cherry-picking begins. The “frontrunners” [sic] are poring over Paul’s successes to find out how to steal his mojo, to use it and spin things to their advantage. The one thing these cults-of-personality don’t get — just don’t get — is that the Paul campaign is about the message (not the man), and you can’t manufacture that out of whole cloth.
Awesome commentary, Tom. Your journey is pretty much parallelling mine. I told Georgia the other day that this is the first Presidential candidate since I acheived the franchise, who actually gets me excited. I mean, I’m gonna actually vote for Paul, not just against the other guy. This is uncharted territory for me.
November 17th, 2007 at 7:37 pm
Tom I don’t mean to be a naysayer or present myself as an opponent of Ron Paul but there is something Paul supporters need to keep in mind if they aren’t already.
I was a Goldwater supporter from the get go. I and thousands like me went door to door soliciting ( actually we were begging) for donations to get Barry to run. We collected thousands of dollars and were miles ahead of Rockefeller and Scranton supporters in dedication and work ethic.
We actually succeeded in getting Barry the nomination, but we also had people on the RNC who were in leadership positions to work on the inside.
With all of that success the opposition and the news media had so badly damaged Barry that we really didn’t have a chance in the general election.
As I said in a previous post Barry was a far more appealing candidate than Ron Paul in almost every category, and the electorate was not nearly as brainwashed as they are today.
It would be great to see Ron pull an upset. If for no other reason just to see the elitists turn green, but based on the reality of today’s political climate I just do not seeing it happening.
Keep up the fight, the alternative candidates are sorely lacking.
November 18th, 2007 at 5:37 am
I started out as pretty much a single issue voter, respecting Ron Paul, but supporting Tancredo/Hunter………….Much has changed, as I now respect Tancredo/Hunter and support Ron Paul. Much of this shift is due to the fact that ONLY the reimplementation of the original constitution can fix a broad number of problems, and start the healing process of our nation. There are few still alive that remember the REPUBLIC that existed prior to FDR, and all have died that remember it prior to LINCOLN…………….A Constitutional Republic was the vision of our Founding Fathers………..Nothing else.
November 18th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
I think Paul’s campaign is a once-in-a-generation event most comparable to the Goldwater campaign. Win-or-lose, it changes things. Sometimes losing isn’t bad. The Goldwater movement spawned the conservative movement, at a moment when the slow march of socialism seemed inevitable.
November 19th, 2007 at 12:50 pm
Tom,
You already convinced me Paul can’t win. What about the troubling YouTube clips?
November 19th, 2007 at 5:56 pm
Impressive. Not many people can raise $4.2 million in one day. There have been other excellent candidates in past elections, but they usually fail to raise any significant amount of money.
November 19th, 2007 at 11:08 pm
Ok, Mr. Professional Devil’s Advocate, I’ll bite. How did I convince you he can’t win? And what Youtube clips are you talking about?
November 25th, 2007 at 9:32 pm
No, I’m serious, I thought you had written that Paul had made racial comments in a video that were posted on You Tube and would be used against him. Maybe I’m mistaken. I like Paul very much.